Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almeria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Almeria 1-0 Leganes, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Almeria 3-0 Leganes
Original prediction
Almeria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 57.1% | 55.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.6% | 25.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.82 | 19.3% | 18.8% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Projected Score
Almeria 1–0 Leganes
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Almeria
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
Almeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlmeriaWWWWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LeganesLLWLD
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AlmeriaLeganes
54.2Attack25.0
79.2Defence54.2
75.0Form45.8
70.7Power44.7
1.67xG0.44