Almeriavs
Celta de Vigo II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 9/20/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almeria · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Almeria 2-0 Celta de Vigo II
Original prediction
Almeria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 65.6% | 56.6% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.54 | 20.4% | 23.4% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 6.63 | 14.0% | 20.0% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Almeria
Probability
56.6%
Model confidence
56.6%
Almeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60