Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almeria · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Almeria 3-2 Cadiz
Original prediction
Almeria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 62.5% | 50.9% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 22.3% | 25.0% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 6.08 | 15.3% | 24.1% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Almeria
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Almeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlmeriaLLWWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
CadizDDDLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AlmeriaCadiz
56.1Attack43.7
56.1Defence57.9
53.0Form43.7
55.8Power49.6
1.54xG1.03