Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almeria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Almeria 2-1 Burgos
Original prediction
Almeria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 59.5% | 44.6% | -14.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.8% | 28.8% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 5.56 | 16.8% | 26.6% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Almeria
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Almeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlmeriaWWWWL
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BurgosWWWDD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AlmeriaBurgos
52.4Attack52.4
81.0Defence66.7
71.4Form66.7
69.1Power64.6
1.21xG0.85