Almere City FCvs
Jong Ajax
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almere City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Almere City FC 0-1 Jong Ajax
Original prediction
Almere City FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 63.8% | 62.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.91 | 18.8% | 19.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 5.31 | 17.4% | 18.3% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Almere City FC
Probability
62.5%
Model confidence
62.5%
Almere City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 11 · GA 14 · avg 2.20/2.80