Almere City FCvs
Heracles
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almere City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Almere City FC 1-0 Heracles
Original prediction
Almere City FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.12 | 29.6% | 44.6% | 15.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.7% | 22.2% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 46.7% | 33.2% | -13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Almere City FC
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Almere City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
GF 20 · GA 6 · avg 4.00/1.20