Almería IIvs
Málaga II
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · 10/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almería II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Almería II 2-1 Málaga II
Original prediction
Almería II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.7% | 45.8% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.0% | 26.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 27.3% | 27.6% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Almería II
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Almería II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40