Almansavs
Marchamalo
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · 10/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almansa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Almansa 3-1 Marchamalo
Original prediction
Almansa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 41.0% | 44.8% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.7% | 26.5% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.99 | 30.3% | 28.7% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Almansa
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Almansa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 1.50/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20