Alloa Athleticvs
Hamilton Academical
COMPLETEDScotland · League One · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hamilton Academical · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alloa Athletic 0-1 Hamilton Academical, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alloa Athletic 0-3 Hamilton Academical
Original prediction
Hamilton Academical
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.93 | 23.3% | 21.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.1% | 26.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 50.6% | 51.5% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Projected Score
Alloa Athletic 0–1 Hamilton Academical
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Hamilton Academical
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Hamilton Academical has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40