Alloa Athleticvs
East Kilbride
COMPLETEDScotland · League One · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alloa Athletic · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alloa Athletic 1-2 East Kilbride
Original prediction
Alloa Athletic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.3% | 40.7% | 4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.1% | 27.2% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.6% | 32.1% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Alloa Athletic
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Alloa Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60