Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza 2-1 Platense
Original prediction
Alianza
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.2% | 49.9% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.7% | 26.1% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 4.27 | 21.1% | 24.0% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Alianza
Probability
49.9%
Model confidence
49.9%
Alianza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlianzaDDWDL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PlatenseDLLLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AlianzaPlatense
51.9Attack36.4
51.9Defence51.5
48.1Form36.4
52.4Power43.8
1.64xG0.93