Alianzavs
Municipal Limeño
COMPLETEDEl-Salvador · Primera Division · 9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Municipal Limeño · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alianza 0-0 Municipal Limeño, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza 3-2 Municipal Limeño
Original prediction
Municipal Limeño
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 41.8% | 32.3% | -9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.4% | 29.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.10 | 28.8% | 38.1% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Projected Score
Alianza 0–0 Municipal Limeño
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Municipal Limeño
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Municipal Limeño has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40