Alianzavs
Isidro Metapán
COMPLETEDEl-Salvador · Primera Division · 10/24/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Isidro Metapán · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza 1-0 Isidro Metapán
Original prediction
Isidro Metapán
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 33.7% | 32.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 29.8% | 28.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.4% | 38.6% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Isidro Metapán
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Isidro Metapán has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40