Alianzavs
Fuerte San Francisco
COMPLETEDEl-Salvador · Primera Division · 9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alianza 1-0 Fuerte San Francisco, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza 2-2 Fuerte San Francisco
Original prediction
Alianza
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.1% | 57.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.1% | 24.8% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 6.09 | 14.9% | 17.6% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Projected Score
Alianza 1–0 Fuerte San Francisco
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Alianza
Probability
57.6%
Model confidence
57.6%
Alianza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20