Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Firpo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza 2-2 Firpo
Original prediction
Firpo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.2% | 23.8% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.3% | 25.7% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 35.5% | 50.5% | 15.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.08 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Firpo
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Firpo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlianzaWDDWD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FirpoWWDWL
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
AlianzaFirpo
51.5Attack58.3
54.5Defence80.6
51.5Form66.7
54.6Power67.9
0.80xG1.51