Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Firpo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Alianza are 2W-0D-0L in their last 2 (WW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Firpo are 2W-1D-0L in their last 3 (WWD), averaging 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 5 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Firpo hold a 28.5-point power-rating edge (51.0 v 79.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.3% in the Primera Division, while Firpo holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Firpo
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Firpo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/1.50
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.67/0.67