Alianzavs
CD Motagua
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Central American Cup · 9/17/2026, 3:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Motagua · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza 0-0 CD Motagua
Original prediction
CD Motagua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 12:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.13 | 28.6% | 25.3% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.6% | 25.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 43.8% | 49.0% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
CD Motagua
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
CD Motagua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40