Alianzavs
Atletico Balboa
COMPLETEDEl-Salvador · Primera Division · 8/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza 2-0 Atletico Balboa
Original prediction
Alianza
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 56.6% | 38.6% | -18.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.6% | 27.7% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 5.08 | 17.7% | 33.7% | 15.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Alianza
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Alianza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40