Alianza Limavs
Universitario
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 9/13/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza Lima · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alianza Lima 1-0 Universitario, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza Lima 1-2 Universitario
Original prediction
Alianza Lima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 42.2% | 45.4% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 31.8% | 29.3% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 26.0% | 25.3% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Projected Score
Alianza Lima 1–0 Universitario
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Alianza Lima
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Alianza Lima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40