Alianza Limavs
Atletico Grau
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/18/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza Lima · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alianza Lima 1-0 Atletico Grau, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza Lima 3-1 Atletico Grau
Original prediction
Alianza Lima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.30 | 71.0% | 66.2% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.95 | 18.6% | 23.3% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 8.87 | 10.4% | 10.5% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Projected Score
Alianza Lima 1–0 Atletico Grau
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Alianza Lima
Probability
66.2%
Model confidence
66.2%
Alianza Lima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60