Alianza Atleticovs
UTC Cajamarca
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 9/4/2026, 8:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza Atletico · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza Atletico 3-2 UTC Cajamarca
Original prediction
Alianza Atletico
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 60.1% | 61.6% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 23.4% | 22.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 5.65 | 16.4% | 16.1% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Alianza Atletico
Probability
61.6%
Model confidence
61.6%
Alianza Atletico has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00