Aliağa FAŞvs
Şanlıurfaspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · 2. Lig · 9/27/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aliağa FAŞ · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aliağa FAŞ 2-1 Şanlıurfaspor
Original prediction
Aliağa FAŞ
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 37.0% | 38.5% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.4% | 26.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 35.6% | 35.1% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Aliağa FAŞ
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Aliağa FAŞ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20