Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Algeria · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Algeria 3-1 Zambia
Original prediction
Algeria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 75.9% | 52.4% | -23.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.36 | 17.0% | 24.6% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 12.97 | 7.0% | 23.0% | 16.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Algeria
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
52.4%
Algeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlgeriaWWDWW
GF 14 · GA 0 · avg 2.80/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
ZambiaLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 18 · avg 0.60/3.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
AlgeriaZambia
58.3Attack66.7
91.7Defence58.3
100.0Form75.0
86.5Power68.0
1.49xG1.02