Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Algeria · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Algeria 2-1 Niger
Original prediction
Algeria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 76.0% | 50.8% | -25.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.71 | 16.2% | 24.7% | 8.5 pts |
| Away | 11.92 | 7.8% | 24.5% | 16.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Algeria
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
Algeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlgeriaDWWWD
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NigerLWLDL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
AlgeriaNiger
66.7Attack66.7
75.0Defence83.3
66.7Form66.7
68.8Power71.2
1.56xG1.13