Algecirasvs
Real Madrid II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/25/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Algeciras 2-0 Real Madrid II
Original prediction
Real Madrid II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 30.8% | 33.9% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.1% | 29.3% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 41.1% | 36.8% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid II
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Real Madrid II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60