Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Algeciras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Algeciras are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Marbella are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Algeciras hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (50.7 v 39.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2, while Algeciras holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Algeciras
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Algeciras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20