Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hércules · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Algeciras 0-0 Hércules, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Algeciras 2-0 Hércules
Original prediction
Hércules
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 34.3% | 32.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 30.2% | 29.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 35.5% | 37.8% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Projected Score
Algeciras 0–0 Hércules
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Hércules
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Hércules has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlgecirasLWWDL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
HérculesWDWWW
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AlgecirasHércules
44.4Attack27.8
44.4Defence83.3
38.9Form72.2
45.6Power64.5
0.88xG1.03