Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Algeciras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Algeciras 0-0 Águilas, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Algeciras 1-1 Águilas
Original prediction
Algeciras
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 44.0% | 38.0% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 30.9% | 31.4% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 25.1% | 30.6% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.94 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Projected Score
Algeciras 0–0 Águilas
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Algeciras
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Algeciras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlgecirasLLLDL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ÁguilasWLDWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AlgecirasÁguilas
35.1Attack50.0
64.0Defence50.0
48.2Form50.0
50.7Power50.0
0.96xG0.84