Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alga · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alga 6-0 Ilbirs
Original prediction
Alga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 October 2026 at 07:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 64.9% | 70.1% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.56 | 19.8% | 17.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 5.87 | 15.4% | 11.9% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Alga
Probability
70.1%
Model confidence
70.1%
Alga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlgaWDWLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
IlbirsLWDDW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AlgaIlbirs
61.1Attack40.3
65.3Defence48.6
68.1Form38.9
66.4Power43.8
2.17xG0.72