Alfreton Townvs
Warrington Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alfreton Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alfreton Town 1-1 Warrington Town
Original prediction
Alfreton Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.3% | 43.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.6% | 23.3% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 31.2% | 33.3% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Alfreton Town
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Alfreton Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60