Alfreton Townvs
United of Manchester
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/6/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alfreton Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alfreton Town 1-0 United of Manchester
Original prediction
Alfreton Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.3% | 56.0% | 10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.3% | 22.5% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 29.5% | 21.4% | -8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Alfreton Town
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
Alfreton Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00