Alfreton Townvs
Stratford Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alfreton Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alfreton Town 0-2 Stratford Town
Original prediction
Alfreton Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 52.8% | 41.4% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.2% | 28.0% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 3.74 | 24.1% | 30.6% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Alfreton Town
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Alfreton Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20