Alfreton Townvs
Shifnal Town FC
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Trophy · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shifnal Town FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alfreton Town 2-1 Shifnal Town FC
Original prediction
Shifnal Town FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 59.7% | 37.2% | -22.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 21.6% | 24.9% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 4.76 | 18.6% | 37.9% | 19.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Shifnal Town FC
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Shifnal Town FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80