Alfreton Townvs
Guiseley AFC
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guiseley AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alfreton Town 1-0 Guiseley AFC
Original prediction
Guiseley AFC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.3% | 32.5% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 26.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 35.9% | 41.1% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Guiseley AFC
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Guiseley AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40