Alfreton Townvs
Bury
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alfreton Town 2-3 Bury
Original prediction
Bury
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.22 | 28.2% | 27.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.4% | 26.3% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 47.4% | 45.9% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Bury
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Bury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20