Alessandriavs
Novara
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/4/2023, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alessandria are 1W-0D-2L in their last 3 (LWL), averaging 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Novara are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Novara hold an 11.1-point power-rating edge (34.3 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.67/1.00
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20