Alessandriavs
Imperia
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie D - Girone A · 9/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alessandria · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alessandria 2-1 Imperia
Original prediction
Alessandria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.0% | 38.9% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.2% | 29.2% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 28.7% | 31.9% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Alessandria
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Alessandria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/2.00