Alessandriavs
Fezzanese
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie D - Girone A · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alessandria · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alessandria 2-0 Fezzanese
Original prediction
Alessandria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 65.7% | 51.7% | -14.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.2% | 26.0% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 8.04 | 11.1% | 22.3% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Alessandria
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Alessandria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00