Alebrijes de OaxacavsTepatitlán

Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Tepatitlán are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Alebrijes de Oaxaca hold a 33.7-point power-rating edge (46.7 v 13.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.