Alebrijes de OaxacavsTapatío

Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Tapatío are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 12.1-point power-rating edge (46.7 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.