Alebrijes de OaxacavsLeones Negros UDG

Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 3.20 conceded, while Leones Negros UDG are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 16.7-point power-rating edge (46.7 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.