GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/29/2024, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Leones Negros UDG are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 16.7-point power-rating edge (46.7 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leones Negros UDG

Probability

40.3%

Model confidence

40.3%

Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Alebrijes de OaxacaDWWLD

GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Leones Negros UDGDWWWW

GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Alebrijes de OaxacaLeones Negros UDG
25.0Attack77.8
58.3Defence44.4
50.0Form66.7
46.7Power63.5
1.28xG1.55
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