Alebrijes de OaxacavsCimarrones

Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Cimarrones are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Cimarrones hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (46.7 v 51.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.0% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Cimarrones holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.