Alebrijes de OaxacavsCelaya

Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Celaya are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 6.1-point power-rating edge (46.7 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.