Alebrijes de Oaxacavs
Celaya
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 8/16/2023, 1:05:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 0W-2D-1L in their last 3 (DLD), averaging 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded, while Celaya are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 8 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 6.1-point power-rating edge (46.7 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.67/2.33
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60