GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/20/2023, 3:05:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

CA La Paz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 3.00 conceded, while CA La Paz are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and CA La Paz hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (46.7 v 57.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while CA La Paz holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

CA La Paz

Probability

42.4%

Model confidence

42.4%

CA La Paz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Alebrijes de OaxacaLWLLW

GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
CA La PazLLWWL

GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Alebrijes de OaxacaCA La Paz
25.0Attack75.0
58.3Defence58.3
50.0Form50.0
46.7Power57.9
1.19xG1.56
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