Aldershot Townvs
Tamworth
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aldershot Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aldershot Town 5-1 Tamworth
Original prediction
Aldershot Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 38.0% | 51.4% | 13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.2% | 23.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.8% | 24.7% | -12.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Aldershot Town
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Aldershot Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40