Aldershot Townvs
Norwich City U21
COMPLETEDEngland · National League Cup · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aldershot Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aldershot Town 5-3 Norwich City U21
Original prediction
Aldershot Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 32.8% | 36.9% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 24.9% | 27.8% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 42.3% | 35.3% | -6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Aldershot Town
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Aldershot Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60