Aldershot Townvs
Harrogate Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Harrogate Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aldershot Town 3-1 Harrogate Town
Original prediction
Harrogate Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 31.1% | 33.2% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.7% | 26.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 43.1% | 40.3% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Harrogate Town
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Harrogate Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60