Aldershot Townvs
Carlisle
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aldershot Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aldershot Town 1-3 Carlisle
Original prediction
Aldershot Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.44 | 26.7% | 45.3% | 18.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.8% | 24.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.85 | 49.5% | 30.1% | -19.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Aldershot Town
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Aldershot Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80